The Future of Geopolitics is Wet: The Coming Conflicts Over Water
An analysis of how climate change and water scarcity are creating a new and powerful source of geopolitical conflict, and the role of technology in the new era of "hydro-politics."
Introduction: The New Oil
For the past century, the great geopolitical conflicts have been fought over oil. In the 21st century, they will be fought over a much more fundamental resource: water. A combination of climate change, population growth, and pollution is creating a global water crisis, a world where fresh, clean water is becoming an increasingly scarce and precious commodity. This is not just a humanitarian crisis; it is a growing threat to international peace and security. The future of geopolitics is wet, and the technologies that can create and conserve water are becoming the new and powerful tools of national security.
The Flashpoints of a Thirsty World
Water does not respect national borders. The world’s great rivers, like the Nile, the Tigris-Euphrates, and the Mekong, flow through multiple countries, creating a complex and often contentious web of interdependencies. As climate change alters rainfall patterns and reduces the flow of these rivers, the potential for conflict over this shared resource is rising dramatically.
Water Tech as a Tool of Geopolitical Power
In this new reality, “water security” is becoming a central pillar of national security. The nations that can master the technologies of water conservation and creation will have a significant strategic advantage:
- Desalination Diplomacy: Countries with advanced and affordable desalination technology can not only secure their own water supply, but can also export this technology to their allies, creating a new and powerful form of diplomatic influence.
- The Agricultural Arms Race: The nations that can deploy the most efficient precision irrigation and other AgriTech at scale will be the agricultural superpowers of the 21st century, with a greater ability to feed their own people and to export food to a hungry world.
Conclusion: A New Era of Hydro-Politics
The global water crisis is one of the most significant and underappreciated geopolitical challenges of our time. It is a crisis that will require a new era of international cooperation and a new commitment to the shared and sustainable management of our planet’s most precious resource. But it will also be a new and powerful source of competition, a new era of “hydro-politics” where the control of water is the control of power.
What do you think is the most promising technology for solving the global water crisis? Let’s have a critical discussion in the comments.
